EUR/USD Trading Forecast

By Annie Reona | Thursday, July 23rd, 2015

Euro Dollar OutlookYesterday, EUR/USD remained between 1.0869 and 1.0966, closing at 1.0934. The pair’s high point this week was on July 21 when it reached 1.0970, the highest since it was at 1.1036 on July 15.

According to analysts in Europe, the consumer confidence index slipped to its lowest level since February 2015 at just -5.68. The index is a measure of the confidence level of consumers and has a range of -100 to +100.

Negative numbers indicate that consumers are lacking in confidence whereas positive numbers indicate that consumers are optimistic about the economy. These numbers are determined by the Business and Consumer Survey which is done over the phone to 23,000 households throughout Europe.

This low confidence of consumers indicates a lack of willingness to spend money which can cause a bear environment in the European money markets.

In the United States, a good short-term market indicator is the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment status for the first time. For the week that ended on July 17, there were 1,000 less cases of people filing compared to just one week earlier. The most recent total released was 280,000 files claimed which was the lowest since the week that ended on June 19 during which there were 271,000 files claimed. There have also been a lower number of continuing jobless claims during this period compared to previous months.

This indicates a higher confidence of consumers which can cause a bull environment in the United States money markets.

Other indicators in the United States further indicate that the economy is growing. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index saw an increase of 0.2% from May to June, which continued the growth spurt that was seen during the months of April and May. This index utilizes a variety of sources to form the final outcome, including manufacturing data, unemployment claims data, data on capital and consumer goods, permits requested and approved, housing units being built, and stock prices.

The Binary Tribune has estimated that the central pivot point for EUR/USD is 1.0923. Analysts predict that if it breaks the first resistant point of 1.0977, it will continue moving up to 1.1020. On the other hand, if it breaks the first key support of 1.08880, then it is expected to continue to decline until it reaches 1.0826.

Published in News & Analysis

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